1. They have their strongholds — UP, MP, Gujarat — that’s a safe 115 Seats in their pocket
2. The Manipur incident apart , they still have a fortress in North East India — Assam is a shoo in, Arunachal is a guarantee, Tripura too and Sikkim as well.
3. That’s another 51 Seats
   I estimate their vote share may fall by 3–4% due to Anti Incumbency
4. That’s 166 Seats
   For the rest of India — they will definitely have no chance in Tamilnadu, Kerala and Telengana
5. Karnataka?
   Sorry. I see BJP take at least 20 seats worst case. Modi may be heavily disapproved but people won’t vote against him yet.
6. Same in Delhi.
   They like the policy of — For State Kejriwal, For Centre Modi
7. I see at least Five Seats
   They won’t be so ahead like 2019 in West Bengal. I expect Leftists to grab at least 4 Seats and TMC at 30 leaving only 7 BJP seats
8. That’s 206 Seats

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Maharashtra is a toss up

Uddhav Thackeray is a Thackeray after all and the NCP has the Dalits and Muslims locked in
It would be a battle of equals

1. I sense an upper hand to the Maratha Mulgas Uddhav and Sharad Pawar
2. Neither Shinde nor Ajit Pawar have the grassroot strength among the voters and remember the local grassroots weren’t paid their “incentives” like the MLAs were
3. Let’s see
4. No Predictions here
5. Even if NDA gets half that’s 24 Seats
6. That’s 230 Seats in Total so far

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Bihar is where I expect Modi will get his biggest loss of voter share

Nitish and Tejaswi and Left combined will draw at least 26 Seats and BJP may end up
with 9 Seats on their own

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1. So the Numbers don’t suggest a loss
2. 239 Seats means only 33 Seats needed to form a government out of 133 remaining seats
3. Of these 133 seats — Regionals and Unallied parties take 76 seats guaranteed
4. So that’s 57 Seats that I believe BJP will win or their allies
5. So I estimate 296 Seats that NDA will win even assuming a worst case scenario today
6. I estimate India will get 161 Seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with INC getting 97–102 Seats

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Like I said

This is Rahul’s chance to use the next five years to be a true national leader of the opposition.

1. You need minimum 55 Seats to become Opposition Leader and now Rahul will be the true Opposition Leader
2. More Bharat Jodos
3. More Peaceful Gandhian Non Violent protests for BJPs excesses
4. More Propaganda
5. 2029 will be when the BJP will be finally destroyed and won’t come back for at least 20 years

If the India somehow win 2024 by some numbers stacking up, the BJP will return roaring back in 2027 and will not go for another two elections at least
So we have another 6 years of Modi unless he dies or resigns